Upstart Stock Price Forecast: Don’t Catch a Falling Knife

Summary:
• Upstart stock price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months as concerns about growth continued. What next?

Upstart stock price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months as concerns about growth continued. UPST shares plunged by more than 28% in extended hours after the firm published weak results. It has crashed by more than 96% from its highest level in 2021, giving it a market cap of more than $1.3 billion. At its peak, Upstart had a market cap of over $30 billion.

Rise and fall of Upstart

Upstart is a fintech company that provides loans to millions of people and companies. Like other fintech companies, Upstart’s share price jumped parabolically in the past few years as demand for fintech disruptors continued. Recently, however, the company has struggled as investors continued worrying about high-interest rates and slow growth.

Upstart stock price plunged after the company published weak financial results. Its revenue came in at $157 million, which was a 31% year-on-year decline. Its loss widened to about 24 cents per share, badly missing what analysts were expecting.

In a statement, the company blamed the falling earnings to relatively low loan volume as rates surge and recession fears increase. As such, the company is now serving about 40% lower applicants than what it served a year ago. The company handled 188k loans in the third quarter, down by 48% year-on-year while the average loan size rose by 14%. Operating expenses dropped by 17% to $212 million while net loss jumped to $56 million.

Upstart has a strong balance sheet. It ended the quarter with $830 million in cash and $431 million in net loan equity. In its outlook, the company said that it expects that revenue will be between $125 million and $145 million in Q4.

So, is Upstart a good investment? With interest rates set to keep rising, there is a high likelihood that the business will continue worsening in the coming months. The company has also accelerated its cash burn, which is not a good sign.

Upstart stock price forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the UPST stock price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. It then made a major down gap after the company published weak earnings. The shares have plunged below all moving averages and has moved to the extremely oversold level. It also crashed below the important support at $20, where it struggled to move several times before.

Therefore, the Upstart stock price will continue falling as sellers target the key psychological level of $10. A move above the resistance at $15 will invalidate the bearish view.