- Summary:
- Here is the Nvidia stock forecast for 2025 and 2026 as Chinese startup, DeepSeek offers a formidable threat to its revenue stream.
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Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Nvidia Corporation is an American technology company with headquarters in Delaware. The company makes semiconductor chips and graphic cards for computers.
The company has been the undisputed market leader in the manufacture of high-performance AI-optimised graphics processing units (GPUs) in the last two years. The GPUs are used in a wide arrray of industries, ranging from gaming, the entertainment industry media, manufacturing design, engineering, and construction etc.
DeepSeek Ushers a New Era in AI?
However, a Chinese startup, DeepSeek triggered a storm in late January 2025, after revealing that it had developed a high-performance Large Language Model (LLM) codenamed, R1. The LLM is trained using substantially cheaper chips but capable of matching the performances of models developed by the likes of OpenAI, which have spent billions of dollars on high-end GPUs. This set up could potentially disrupt Nvidia’s revenue stream.
Nvidia undertook a 10-for-1 share split in June 2024, bringing down the price per share to $120. The stock currently trades at $123, about 2.5% above that level. However, that follows a sharp decline from $153.00 recorded on January 7.
In essence, Nvidia stock price has dropped by 14% in the last five days and is down by -9% year-to-date. The decline was precipitated by news that Chinese startup, DeepSeek, had made a breakthrough innovation in Large Language Model (LLM) training that have seemingly negated the need for Nvidia’s high-end AI chips.
The DeepSeek rout infamously cost a $586 billion drop in Nvidia stock price- the largest single-day loss in history. However, NVDA has bounced back since then, with its market cap is at $3.02 trillion, as of this writing making it the third most valuable company in the world behind Apple and Microsoft.
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Nvidia Stock News
NVIDIA reported revenues of $35.1 billion for Q3 2025 (period ended October 31, 2024), representing a jump of 17% from the previous quarter, and a 94% growth over the corresponding quarter a year earlier. The jump was primarily driven by the Data Center segment, which registered a 112% growth to $30.8 billion in the quarter. In addition, the company’s gross margin grew from 74% to 74.6%.
The company’s strong growth has been powered by an immense demand from the AI sector in the last two years. Particularly, the company’s Hopper GPU series have been at the centre of that growth. More recently, CEO Jensen Huang described the demand for newly launched high-end Blackwell chips as “insane.” However, the emergence of DeepSeek potentially threatens Nvidia’s revenues.
Nvidia’s AI earnings displace gaming
Nvidia started out as a company primarily focusing on developing high-performance gaming GPU chips. However, the uptick in the appetite for AI technology has shifted the momentum and flipped the earnings trend. As a result, the gaming segment only brought in $3.3 billion as per the Q3 2025 earnings report, compared to Data Centre’s $30.8 billion.
Nvidia’s strategy of developing products targeting potential tech competitors also seems to have paid off. Some of its leading clients include Meta, Google, Microsoft and Amazon; all off which are competitors in the tech innovation race.
NVIDIA’s AI-optimised GPU chips have proven irresistible across the tech space for training of Large Language Models and development of generative AI. These are central to the development of AI solutions, and the tech giants have been spending billions of dollars to acquire the GPUs from NVIDIA.
Microsoft spent approximately $31 billion on acquisition of Nvidia GPU chips. Meanwhile, Meta plans to spend $65 billion on AI-related capex in 2025. NVIDIA’s high-capacity GPUs are at the forefront of the race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is touted as being potentially capable of being more intelligent than humans.
In March, Nvidia announced Blackwell, a new line of AI-focused processor chips. The first out of this product line, the GB200, has a capacity of 20 petaflops. That is a massive upgrade from the previous 4 petaflops for the highly-successful H100 chips. Nvidia started shipping the GB200 from the fourth quarter of 2024. The Blackwell family of processors is miles ahead of the competition. Furthermore, the H100 chips are still in high demand.
Will Nvidia Stock Go Up?
The question should not be, “will Nvidia go up”? Instead, the question should be about the extent to which Nvidia should be going up. This is a stock that has a lot of tailwinds following it. Nvidia’s success in the AI field is likely to keep it in the lead for longer, much as the stock price is currently down.
That said, the demand for these chips could be impacted by DeepSeek’s inroads. Nonetheless, breakthroughs in AI technologies, products and services could create a strong demand. Conversely, a stagnation in AI development could impact Nvidia’s earnings.
In the short-term, the NVDA stock price is likely to continue until the stock split happens on June 7. However, in the coming months, it could ease as investors take profits. Furthermore, higher-for-longer US interest rates could create a harsh environment that could limit the upside.
Also, supply patterns in the global semiconductor market could weigh on the market. For instance, in 2024, Super Micro Computers (SMCI) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) encountered headwinds in that front. A repeat of the same in 2025 could potentially affect the broader market and, by extension, NVIDIA’s ability to meet order volumes amidst an AI market boom.
Nvidia Stock Forecast 2025
Nvidia’s claim to fame was built on building equipment for the video gaming sector. However, it was its decision to spend more resources away from video games that powered its meteoric climb to $3.5 trillion in valuation.
The company’s gaming unit sales numbers contributed to just 10% of its latest quarterly earnings, and were down 25% from two years ago. This is in contrast to the 40% in revenue that gaming brought to the company in the first quarter of 2022. The drastic shift from retail-focused gaming GPU sales to institution-focused AI-GPUs sales has paid off big time, and is likely to continue expanding as the world transitions to the AI era.
Nvidia: Price Chart to Stock Split
As described earlier, Nvidia stock price rally will likely continue at least until the share split. The stock is currently on a bull run. Based on the 10-to-1 ratio of the split, I have placed the lower end of the price target forecast in 2024 at $96, while the top end is $120.
The technical analysis shows that on Nvidia stock price currently trades below the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) on the weekly chart. The VWMA reading is at $133.65, and that mark will likely be the ceiling in the medium-term. Furthermore, the pivot mark will likely be at $120, the post-split listing price. However, a move below that mark will signal control by the sellers, but I expect support to be at $100, near the neckline of the would-be double-top pattern.
On the upside, a break above the VWMA level will signal control by the buyers. Beyond that point, the next barrier is likely to be at $152.38, which correponds to the upper Bollinger Band level on the weekly chart. However, an extended control by the buyers could potentially test the next psychological target at $160.00.
Nvidia Stock Forecast 2026
The Nvidia stock forecast 2026 outlook carries on from the 2025 outlook, and will likely head up, as I expect the company to withstand the DeepSeek onslaught.Therefore, my Nvidia stock forecast for 2026 remains bullish. However, there is a chance that the price may retreat as a result of profit taking after the stock split.
Is Nvidia a Good Stock to Buy?
Nvidia is a good stock to buy. It has good cash flow, solid fundamentals, and has the support of 42 institutional firms as a “Strong Buy”. However, as mentioned above, its growth is critically hinged on the success of the AI sector as a whole. Whether or not it is an excellent stock to buy at the current price is another matter entirely.
Summary
Nvidia stock forecast for 2025 and 2026 is still bullish, despite the emergence of a formidable challenge in DeepSeek. The company has been able to ride a wave of success from the pandemic and the global demand for high-performance AI GPUs is unlikely to slow down. However, the DeepSeek phenomenon could eat into part of Nvidia’s revenue stream.