Risk
The S&P 500 dipped lower in the first few seconds of the September US Non-farm Payrolls report. The US economy created 661,000 jobs vs the 850,000 anticipated, an evident disappointment. However looking at the details, it was clear that it was the government sector that generated the shortfall, as 216K government jobs were lost. Also, the US unemployment rate declined to 7.9% vs 8.2% anticipated.
Since May, the unemployment rate has beat expectations, by falling faster than economist projected. The better than expected economic conditions since May has indeed boosted the S&P 500, which is up by near 20% since May. However, I am not sure today’s report will do much to alter people’s positions as it is a mixed report given that the headline NFP figure failed to meet expectations.
From a technical point of view, the trend in the S&P 500 remains upwards for now, and it will stay upwards as long as the price trades above the September low of 3210.
A short-term support level is the September 30 low of 3302, and the very short-term trend will probably remain upwards as long as the price trades above this level. We could see the S&P 500 reach its October high of 3398 as long as the price remains above 3302.
However, I would like to work with a more stable low, and I, therefore, see value in being long the S&P 500 in the 3210 to 3269 interval.
