- Summary:
- Can the rupee hold above 85.38 or is a drop toward 84.99 next? Key levels, trade cues, and oil price moves driving the rupee-dollar pair now.
The rupee is holding firm near 85.16 against the U.S. dollar, showing early signs of stability after a volatile April. Softer crude prices and improved trade sentiment are offering some breathing room, helping the pair stay supported following last week’s rebound from the lows.
USDINR Today: Resistance Caps the Upside
- Resistance: 85.37
- Breakout zone: 85.80 – 86.13
- Upper ceiling: 86.69, then 86.88
- Short-term support: 85.16
- Deeper support: 84.88 – 84.21
Momentum remains weak. The MACD is still in negative territory, although it’s starting to flatten. RSI just moved off 38, still below neutral, but no longer in oversold.
Why Is USDINR Range-Bound?
Oil prices have cooled off. That’s taken pressure off the rupee.
Foreign investors haven’t pulled back. They’re still active in Indian equities.
Trade chatter between Delhi and Washington has remained constructive.
And while the U.S. dollar remains firm globally, the recent DXY dip has offered some room for EM currencies to breathe.
It’s a balance of forces, and for now, it’s holding.
USDINR Today Forecast: Breakout or Bounce?
If bulls push through 85.37, the next challenge comes quickly at 85.80. That zone has rejected price multiple times this month. A failure to hold above 85.16, however, could pull USDINR down toward 84.88 or even the stronger base at 84.21 if sentiment flips.
The pair remains range-bound, for now. But volatility could return quickly if global risk conditions shift.